Complexity Rising

1) The brain, now it is finally beginning to be understood, turns out to unconsciously execute many of the decision-making processes that were previously thought to be self-consciously produced. The idea that all decisions flow from an executive rational subject, in principle capable of operating in isolation from others, now appears to be at worst false and at best unhelpful.

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So what does this imply for our investment decision making processes in times of rising complexity?

RSA - Social Brain

The most important current struggle is that between the two hypothetical alternative routes the world will actually choose. It’s very difficult to define very narrowly these two directions, but basically there will be people trying to create a new world-system which will replicate certain basic features of the existing system but not be a capitalist system. It would still be hierarchical and exploitative. The other direction would be to create an alternative system that is relatively democratic and relatively egalitarian. These are all very vague terms because one can’t define in advance the structural details of such a future world-system. But obviously one solution would be from my point of view a better world-system, and the other would be at least as bad as or perhaps worse than the world-system we presently have. So it’s a real political struggle.

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An excerpt of an interesting interview particularly relevant to the increasing systemic shifts and the potential move away from capitalism and the systems that supported it.

Theory Talks: Theory Talk #13: Immanuel Wallerstein

And, in place of transactions and supply chains (which are, essentially, series of middle men), communities are gaining leverage and power from these shared commodities like news and gas.

A low-level web of constant relationships, circular, cellular systems where shared, collaborative contributions are the norm, is developing. Here, the value resides with relationships, not transactions. Maybe, instead of buying and selling more and more in a mad race for grabbing the most growth, the future will be about a collaborative, community-oriented regenerative growth model.

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This low-level web of constant relationships is I think a nugget of what’s new in this ‘intersection’. A ‘new’ basis of exchange that describes connection and relationship. The layer of social media, and public micro-messaging in particular, is that it brings it beyond the analysis of the connections themselves but the context of the connections and the connection of contexts.

The Next Evolution in Economics: Rethinking Growth - HBR Now - Harvard Business Review

Intersections of interest in ComplexityRising.

We recently kicked off our interviews with Stephen Huddart of the J.W. McConnell Family Foundation.

Through that conversation the intersection of evaluation and metrics and social media (especially public micro-messaging) in the context of complexity became particularly interesting.

We’re left with the questions of the role of this intersection in:

• Reducing lag in the measurement/evaluation/action cycle.
• Improving maps/descriptions of complex systems (e.g. social issues, portfolio strategies, etc.)
• Deepening/distributing engagement in impact, evaluation, and outcomes
• Optimizing investment decisions

What do you think? What are you seeing? What are you trying?

Snapshot of complexity theory.

In dealing with the notion of ‘complexity’ in the ComplexityRising theme here is a quick snapshot.

One approach to understanding complex systems is ‘panarchy’. Paul Hartzog describes it through this formula:

Complexity + Networks + Connectivity => Panarchy.

This points to the central role of networks and connectivity in understanding and addressing complex systems and why social network analysis is is a field of increasing importance in this area.

This is the basis of understanding we’re taking into this exploration. How evaluation, metrics, and social media play into this is a particular interesting intersection in this context.

A snapshot of social metric developments.

Complexity is rising. Measurement and evaluation is responding.

Here are few examples.

Moving from simple – to complicated – to complex there are developments in 3 main areas according to the recent FSG Impact Advisors report.

1. Shared Measurement Platforms (leading to increased efficiency). For example:

• Impact Reporting and Investment Standards
• Pulse
• Canadian Index of Wellbeing

2. Comparative Performance Systems (leading to increased knowledge). For example:

• Logic Model (W.K. Kellogg Foundation)

3. Adaptive Learning Systems (leading to increased impact). For example:

• Developmental Evaluation (J.W. McConnell Family Foundation)

Please feel free to add examples, will update as they come in.

The "We"

The curiosity to launch this exploration comes from Michael Lewkowitz and Jeremy Heigh.

A venturer interested in shifting systems, Michael has been exploring the role of venturing, investment, and the mode of organizing in situations with complex ambiguity. Recently drawn to public micro-messaging as a medium for change, Michael comes to this with a sense that emerging forms of communication hold opportunities for unprecedented description and sensing of complex systems.

Jeremy is an economist. He applies timeless principles to create simple tools that address wicked problems. He works with corporations, foundations and governments to enable evidence-based decisions, refine core competencies, and assess advantages. These disciplines allow investors to stack the odds of success and leverage up on current positions.

Together, Michael and Jeremy are hosting this conversation to explore the challenge of executing within and in spite of complexity. In particular, they are interested in using analytical tools that sense peripheral issues and emerging opportunities to drive the performance of organizations.

Wise investments + mission impact.

It’s your goal.

The complexity of impact is rising faster than ever. Even if you’re getting smarter and your teams are getting better – are your tools keeping up?

Global transparency, immediacy of media, and the closing proximity of issues makes monitoring, managing and acting on alternatives incredibly challenging. In response, the sophistication of the tools we use to sense change, track dynamics, and chart emerging landscapes must evolve.

But how?

That’s what this space was created to explore. Through a series of interviews, discussions here, and on-the-fly research: we’re going to work with this opportunity.

Join us. Share the questions. Contribute your thoughts.